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Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/8/2010 1:03 PM
Post #5480 - In reply to #5227

Tom and Jim,

Thanks for the encouragement. I am reducing the symbols in my maps.

So far, this morning, there have been no further glitches. However, I've been so focused today on getting everything working just right that I haven't yet explored the week's Earnings Map. I expect to get to it right now.

Jeff
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THELGET

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/8/2010 1:34 PM
Post #5481 - In reply to #5480

Jim and Jeff:

Yes, I stand corrected.

I believe that only 500 symbols were available several years ago when I took DTN IQFeed. But according to the website you can get more {just as long as you don't mind paying more):








Tom Helget

[Edited by THELGET on 11/8/2010 1:37 PM]

Attached file : STANDARD SERVICE.png (71KB - 512 downloads)
Attached file : ANOTHER 500.png (31KB - 517 downloads)

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Barry Cohen

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/8/2010 3:40 PM
Post #5482 - In reply to #5227

Esignal is 200 symbols for their basic subscription & you can pay more for 500 & even more for 1000. Even their basic 200 subscription is quite a bit more pricey than OmniData or IQ Feed's 500 symbol limit.

We'll likely have an option for OmniData to add an additional 500 symbols for a fee, but I don't know when.

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THELGET

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/8/2010 3:57 PM
Post #5483 - In reply to #5482

Barry:

Good news! And, yes, I too believe that OmniData RealTime is the best value of the three. Using it over the last year it has become more reliable and I can't remember the last time any real problems were encountered.

Tom Helget
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jimb

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/8/2010 10:56 PM
Post #5484 - In reply to #5480

Jeff

Many of my forum posts are about trading the open, probably because these are my favorite trades.

But based on what little is known about you, you would probably like also the top down approach, and it may be more applicable for use in your deferred compensation accounts.

One of our on-going trades of this type is in the coal industry. Attached is the six week performance for selected coal stocks. Our Group consensus was that PUDA and YZC were the two stocks into which the most institutional money was flowing based on the 5-30d volume ratio. ACI and BTU had been recommended by another professional trader based on their improving fundamentals As you can see in the best and worse coal stocks for a six week period, the following is the percent profits for each stock:, PUDA about 60%, YZC about 40%, ACI about 10%, and BTU about 20%. Please note that we missed the first part of the move up, so we only got most of the 40% and 60% moves. So even in these longer timeframe trades that use a different technique, the basic approach is the same – find the big movers from which to extract big profits. And of course, the group/industry moves are also normally safer.

And as you know, if you want to make even more profit, use of options is just fine for these types of plays.

Bye the way, the coal industry was up 2.5% today.

Anyway, hope this change of pace in posting proves of interest to you. But please stay with trading the open too – it is sort of like having an ATM machine with a renewal, big balance in it.

Regards,

Jim B.

Attached file : 101108 ACI & BTU charts.pdf (18KB - 277 downloads)
Attached file : 101108 YZC & PUDA charts.pdf (17KB - 263 downloads)
Attached file : 101105 Best & Worst $CCOAL stocks 6w.pdf (34KB - 269 downloads)
Attached file : 101005 Coal Ind Tech 5-30d vol ratio sort.pdf (155KB - 259 downloads)

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/9/2010 1:20 PM
Post #5488 - In reply to #5484

Jim,

This is terrific information, and I very much appreciate your generosity in sharing all of this on the VT forum.

As a point of clarification, am I correct in assuming that when you refer to the "top down approach" you are making swing trades that run for several days with positions that are held overnight? I assume this is so.

If so, I would be quite comfortable with this style of trading. I think I would probably do this in an account separate from the one I plan to use for day-trading.

The daily charts you posted appear to be from VT. However, I am not familiar with the 5/30day volume ratio sort nor with the best and worst stock sort on the coal industry. How were those created?

I'll confess, I seem to have an aversion to trading options. But, I imagine that -- with movements as big as that of PUDA -- keeping track of all the Greeks, etc., or worrying about expiration dates is not a major consideration. (I guess it is because of all these complications that I have tended to prefer futures instead of options.)

Naturally your use of the well-stocked ATM machine as a metaphor for trading the open seems very appealing to me. But, as I have been studying the Earnings Map that you provided, it strikes me that the opens for these stocks are often very volatile, with occasional, sudden multiple reversals.

I plan to keep studying these. But, I have yet to develop a level of comfort with it.

Jeff


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jimb

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/9/2010 8:56 PM
Post #5497 - In reply to #5488

Jeff,

Just FYI – I actively trade all timeframes. And yes, the top down approach as described here is mainly for trades lasting weeks to months. Additionally, at times the same stocks are traded in multiple time frames, which is a big research time saver.

The top down approach is basically finding in which sectors, industries, and stocks institutions are adding to, or reducing, their positions (accumulation and distribution). So it is following the money, which institutions try to hide, of course. But “elephants” have to leave some big foot prints as they invest and trade. I use non-Nirvana tools to do the initial research, and these subscription tools use to also be in the public domain, and could be used for free as an input to Group Trader. I’ll do a search tomorrow and will post links if they are found.

These trades might be boring, but they yield consistently superior profits at a relatively low risk.

I am not proficient at using Group Trader, and there might be a way to do the same thing entirely by using it. If so, hope some more knowledgeable forum member will post how to do it. I had been doing this type of trade for a good many years when Group Trader first became available, but did not see an easy conversion of this technique. But since then, no reassessment has been done with more current versions. I started to not post this information because of holding Nirvana in high regard, and not wanting to appear to be promoting a competitor’s tools in a Nirvana forum. One of our trading Groups members has been investigating how Group Trader could best be used support this type of trade, and he has done lots better than myself, who owes him feedback in this matter.

The specific overall top down approach (as I know it) is first, evaluate the flow of institutional money into sectors and industries using the Big Chart. Select representative stocks in industries of interest, and use your personal criteria to determine likely candidates to receive/lose the most institutional money. My preferred evaluation technique is to rank candidates by the change in their average daily volume for the past five days compared to their average daily volume for the past thirty days (over the years this has been a reliable tool to find “elephant” foot prints). But again, this is just an individual preference. This 5-30d volume ratio can fairly easily be done in a Nirvana data supported customized scan.

In regards, to trading options: Lots of professional traders never trade options. Years ago I made the deliberate decision to get really good at trading stocks before returning to options. I will say that being good at stock trading has been a big help at trading options, which I still am not yet really good at, though.

If another forum member knows where there is a public domain Big Chart available, please post the link for it. A sample Big Chart is attached for informational purposes in aiding identification of a public domain source.

Investors Business Daily (IBD) does something similar, with industry information displayed in tables. But I have not used their information as much as my preferred source. So it may (or may not) be equally as good. Again, perhaps there are forum members that can share their experience with the IBD supporting the same overall approach.

In regards to the early morning stocks to be traded being very volatile: That is one of the things to love about them. But there are usually enough candidates, that less volatile stocks can be selected until you feel comfortable with the quicker moving stocks.

Regards,

Jim B.

Attached file : 101105 BC by rank.pdf (122KB - 336 downloads)

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/10/2010 7:31 AM
Post #5499 - In reply to #5488

Jeff,

Below is day trading info for today - market opens in one hour.
No info was provided yesterday because I did not trade.

Economic Reports
7:00am USD US - MBA Purchase Applications
8:30am USD US - Jobless Claims
8:30am USD US - Import and Export Prices
8:30am USD US - International Trade
10:30am USD US - EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00am USD US - EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00pm USD US - Treasury Budget

China raising bank reserve requirement to cool lending appears to be negatively impacting world markets.

Gap stks - ARCC CAGC IGT IVZ LOGI LVS (also, but not supported by quick add - DEER SMT)
SUB gap stks - AONE

7:55an edit: added gap stk - RL

8:26am edit - SLW CSC gap stk adds

8:44 edit - RL top out was nice
[8:41:56 AM] James E. Barrett: SLW appears to be a relative safe play

Edit SLW reverse of of post market congestion was beautiful, and relatively safe.

How is this for fast? - posted by a trading buddy -
rimm
[8:32:12 AM] T3 was in rimm for one minutte

Got to focus on trades

Regards,

Jim B.
Jim B.

[Edited by jimb on 11/10/2010 8:55 AM]

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/10/2010 8:24 AM
Post #5500 - In reply to #5499

Jim,

Thanks, once again, for all of this input and information. I know these posts involve a certain amount of your time.

It is very much appreciated. I am making a careful effort to learn from your experience and knowledge.

Jeff
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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/10/2010 9:06 AM
Post #5501 - In reply to #5500

Jeff,

LVS is a type of play that you most likely should be playing now - until you get use to these plays.

If you have questions after looking at its chart, just let me know.

Hope you captured it this morning.

Regards,

Jim B.
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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/10/2010 10:35 AM
Post #5503 - In reply to #5501

Jim,

Living in Las Vegas, and having met Nathan Adelson (founder & major stockholder), I am familiar with LVS.

And, I see it moved down $2 this morning -- apparently based on a downgrade and negative news. Then it bounced back up $1. Very nice and relatively smooth. If I had been watching it today, those would have been nice trade opportunities.

However, I did not find it on the Earnings Map.

I'm still paper-trading the TF emini. Today has been good, so far.

Also, I have joined the Signal Watch Live chat group and signal alerts, for a one-month trial. The system did provide a stock alert on LVS at 6:50 am (Pacific Time) that it was testing support at 50.25. Clearly, it broke through that support.

Jeff
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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/10/2010 11:27 AM
Post #5504 - In reply to #5503

Jeff,

Glad you liked the LVS pattern. Now it is just a matter of identifying them shortly after market open - the re-assessment at about five minutes after market open is a good starting point. For LVS your entry would have likely been at about $50,83 as the third 5 minute candle was forming. A more conservative entry would have been at about $49.70, which is below the third candle low, and also below the normal scalping range around the $50 decade number. Good luck.

LVS was in the original list of gap stks posted above at about an hour before market open. I always include the apparent good gap stocks in the map for early mornings trades. Having these multiple sources for candidates help make money every day.

Regards,

Jim B.
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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/10/2010 12:03 PM
Post #5505 - In reply to #5504

Jim,

Thanks again for you patience and generosity in explaining all of this to me very carefully.

Jeff
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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/12/2010 9:18 PM
Post #5509 - In reply to #5505

Jeff,

Attached is the earnings map for next week.

Enjoy.

Regards,

Jim B.
Attached file : 101115 Earnings Map For Week.vtp (360KB - 219 downloads)

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/13/2010 10:40 AM
Post #5511 - In reply to #5509

Thanks, Jim. I continue to learn from studying these Earnings Maps that you are providing.

Jeff
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jimb

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/13/2010 9:11 PM
Post #5512 - In reply to #5511

Jeff,

One of the things I like to do when making forum posts is to provide enough information that someone reviewing these posts in the future can glean useful information from them. Although it is a little late, and not much, attached are 5 day, 15 minute micro charts that give some indication of earnings stocks performance last week.

Perhaps you can post some of the charts you find particularly interesting, from time to time, to help add to both the current and historical value of this thread

Another thing some new day traders might be unaware of is that many day traders set their daily profit goal at $1,000. Since there are about 270 trading days per year, this provides a sufficient income goal for many people.

Perhaps even with some detail lost in the micro charts, it can be seen how they support this profit goal. A fairly standard day trader lot size is 1,000 shares. So it only takes a $1.00 profit extraction from a move to reach the daily goal.

Of course, it is important to keep trade size small while learning to day trade. It is also a good policy to reduce lot size if a trader gets into a losing streak.

It is realized that most forum members are likely aware of the above, or else have developed their individual goals, lot sizes, and etc., but it is better to be redundant than remiss when sharing information, in my humble opinion.

Jeff, since you were not using the pre market posts, and also added Signal Watch to your trade activities, posting pre market information was stopped. Good luck in this continuing activity.

Regards,

Jim B.

Attached file : 101108 - 101109 M Tu Earnings stks.pdf (40KB - 257 downloads)
Attached file : 101110 - 101112 Wed-Fri Earnings stks.pdf (38KB - 264 downloads)

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/13/2010 11:23 PM
Post #5513 - In reply to #5512

Jim,

Every small bit of information is very much appreciated -- especially since I realize it is not merely theoretical on your part, but derived from years of real market experience.

As for the pre-market posts, I would be happy to continue to receive them, if you would be willing. So far, I don't think that Signal Watch posts data focusing on those stocks on the Earnings Map.

Last week, I was particularly interested in the chart of ANW on Thursday. I think that would have been one I could have traded.

I would think that working with a community of like-minded traders can be very helpful in keeping an eye on the larger list and narrowing it down to the very best prospects.

Jeff
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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/14/2010 11:21 AM
Post #5514 - In reply to #5513

Jeff,

There is no problem in posting pre market information on a as time is available basis. Most of last week I had significant allergy problems, and suffered degraded performance from them. That is, I had to really focus on my trades more than usual, and even greatly reduced chat posting, which as you recall by Group agreement is a much lower priority than individual Group member trades. I actually did not trade on Tuesday because of allergies.

Thursday was an excellent trading day, and ANW was identified in our pre market review. As you may have seen, the small pull back shortly before market open contributed to this being a higher probability trade. So you appear to be doing what was suggested - using things you already know. If you do not initially like the breakout plays, do not trade them, except in replays for practice. One of our Group members played mostly pull backs for a good while before getting more aggressive. We all trade differently, hopefully in a style that suits us.

Just FYI - For early morning trades, I am super aggressive. For my longer timeframe trades, I am fairly conservative.

Attached are the Group chat from Thursday, and an ANW annotated chart. The chart was captured today on one of my support computers that did not have the earnings map loaded.

Please add your comments about what you see in charts, as your time permits. Your comments will likely be very valuable to others. Plus it will assist in focusing our interactions.

Good luck in this continuing endeavor.

Regards,

Jim B.

Attached file : 101111 ANW annotated chart for Jeff.pdf (43KB - 235 downloads)
Attached file : 101111 Thursday chat with names replaced by trader number.wps (11KB - 218 downloads)
Attached file : 101111 Trusday chat with names replaced by trader number.doc (26KB - 252 downloads)

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/15/2010 7:53 AM
Post #5515 - In reply to #5513

Jeff,

FYI - pre market info for your use follows:

Monday, November 15, 2010, good morning
Economic Reports
8:30am USD US - Retail Sales
8:30am USD US - Empire State Mfg Survey
10:00am USD US - Business Inventories

Some M&A activity
CAT acquiring BUCY, so BUCY gap is not playable
Offer to buy POT was withdrawn. POT was priced at about $112 when offer was made. It is now $138.75 - so will gap fill?

ISLN big gap may be an acquition, therefore not playable

Gap stks - AKAM APC BBL F HGSI JOYG LOW MEE POT RINO THOR
SUB gap stks - ASYS GTSI HTWR LLNW

0823 EDIT: SUB gap stk adds - CSUN MMYT

Foreign Markets
Asia - mixed
Europe - some higher

Domestic Markets - up 0.14% to 0.50%

Regards,

Jim B.

[Edited by jimb on 11/15/2010 8:24 AM]

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/15/2010 10:13 PM
Post #5517 - In reply to #5513

Jeff,

Mainly for historical purposes, some of today's charts are attached.

Some folks might find the POT price action interesting, and may want to see how much of moves ($2 down, $3 up, and $3 down) they would be likely to catch for profits - if they did not play it today, that is.

There were a couple of plays similar to RINO, which just drifted down most of the day.

Please add any charts which might be of interest to other forum members, as your time permits.

Regards,

Jim B.
Attached file : 101115 2m charts for gap stks POT & RINO.pdf (37KB - 252 downloads)
Attached file : 101115 2m charts for gap stks LOW & MEE.pdf (34KB - 234 downloads)
Attached file : 101115 2m charts for gap stks HGSI & JOYG.pdf (34KB - 238 downloads)
Attached file : 101115 2m charts for gap stks BBL & F.pdf (34KB - 243 downloads)
Attached file : 101115 2m charts for gap stks AKAM & APC.pdf (34KB - 218 downloads)
Attached file : 101115 2m charts for gap stk THOR & Earnings Stk LFT.pdf (34KB - 248 downloads)
Attached file : 101115 Pt 1 Earnings stks for week 1d 5m microcharts.pdf (49KB - 245 downloads)
Attached file : 101115 Pt 2 Earnings stks for week 1d 5m microcharts.pdf (18KB - 236 downloads)
Attached file : 101115 SUB earnings stks for week 1d 5m microcharts.pdf (42KB - 226 downloads)

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/16/2010 7:51 AM
Post #5518 - In reply to #5513

Jeff,

FYI - pre market info for your use. Good luck

Tuesday, November 16, 2010, good morning
Economic Reports
7:45am USD US - ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
8:30am USD US - Producer Price Index
8:55am USD US - Redbook
9:00am USD US - Treasury International Capital
9:15am USD US - Industrial Production
10:00am USD US - Housing Market Index

Foreign Markets
Asia - mixed
Europe - down, appear concerned over Ireland debt (again)

Domestic Markets - down 0.42% to 0.64%

Gap stks - ANF BBL BHP DKS EPB JOYG PWRD RIO SKS SLW URBN
SUB gap stks - LLNW

Also watching POT based on its price action yesterday.

Regards,

Jim B.
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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/16/2010 8:50 PM
Post #5519 - In reply to #5513

Jeff,

Some of today’s charts are again posted for your use, and to aid in making this thread useful over time through historically complete information – sort of a time capsule, perhaps.

Note that IOC serves as an example to check earnings stocks shortly after market open to catch nice moves that were not indicated in the pre market. Previously it was recommended that this be done about two minutes after market open using the Nirvana provided Net Percent (Session) transform. Of course this check is easily done by viewing either the list or the map. The check time is not critical, but two minutes has (empirically) worked well. If the open is offering a bunch of plays, this check is slipped to within the first five minutes. Although they are few, some mornings are so busy that the check is delayed until trading slows down. In these few cases, the replay function using the two minute timeframe paused at two minutes after market open (0832 CT in my case) is used to find these stocks because they often also trade well later in the day.

One advantage to these trades is there are profit opportunities almost every day, no matter what the market is doing. Only today was it realized that including a market summary in these forum posts would be of benefit. And of course, today the market had a fairly big move down. So looking at the URBN chart serves as an example of a stock most definitely on its own page – not correlated to market behavior.

The PDF e-book that you were nice enough to share with all of us is very well documented. Your assistance in aiding me in making these forum posts more useful is solicited. It is recalled that when we privately communicated about this sharing of information, you suggested our communications be mainly via the forum so that others might benefit. So it seems we are like thinking individuals. Of course at the same time, I do not want to clog up the forum with posts that are not of interest to others.

For now, suggest we continue communications via the forum. But let’s keep an eye out for if we are over-doing it with forum posts on this subject.

Another thing realized (perhaps again) today is that many forum members likely have trained themselves to use the signals generated by Nirvana’s fine products. And for these plays, I have no experience trying to execute trades based on signals. I (intuitively) believe the signals would often be too late. However, there are some patterns for which signals would likely catch a substantial portion of the profits - but most likely not for the quick reversals that I love. Please try and keep track of this issue. Perhaps you can open a door to help make these plays of benefit to a larger portion of the forum members.

Good luck in your continuing endeavors in this activity.

Regards,

Jim B.

Attached file : 101116 Pt 1 earnings stks for week 1d 5m microcharts.pdf (47KB - 243 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 Pt 2 earnings stks for week 1d 5m microcharts.pdf (17KB - 235 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 SUB earnings stks for week 1d 5m microcharts.pdf (41KB - 213 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 Market Overview.pdf (93KB - 267 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 5 min charts - ANF & BBL.pdf (33KB - 233 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 5 min charts - BHP & DKS.pdf (31KB - 235 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 5 min charts - EPB & JOYG.pdf (32KB - 222 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 5 min charts - POT & SLW.pdf (33KB - 247 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 5 min charts - RIO & IOC.pdf (46KB - 256 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 5 min charts - SKS & URBN.pdf (32KB - 220 downloads)

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/16/2010 9:39 PM
Post #5520 - In reply to #5484

As a follow up to Post #5484 made on 11/8/10 (the fifth post on this page (above)):

Attached are charts for the four coal industry stocks previously mentioned. They have retraced fairly deep in a short time. Of course, they (except for YZC) are not even down to their 20d MA, which just seems to indicate that they were fairly well extended after profits were made from their nice run. Their move down has NOT been with the preferred lower volume, if looking for a pull back (retrace) as a buying opportunity.

Whatsoever, the technique used to find these stocks was, and is, valid. And coal likely has a bright future for a group move. But recent price action serves as a reminder that what goes up fast, can come back down fast.

Wish that someone had known where a public domain Big Chart was available. My search remains fruitless.

Regards,

Jim B.


[Edited by jimb on 11/16/2010 9:41 PM]

Attached file : 101116 daily charts - ACI & BTU.pdf (21KB - 251 downloads)
Attached file : 101116 daily charts - PUDA & YZC.pdf (20KB - 219 downloads)

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/17/2010 6:42 AM
Post #5521 - In reply to #5519


Jim,

No worries here with respect to posting too much in the forum. There are more who are interested in what you post than you know. I always have appreciated what you post.

TP
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jimb

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Joined: 7/1/2006
Location: Madison, AL 35758

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/17/2010 7:53 AM
Post #5522 - In reply to #5521

Thank you, TP.

Regards,

Jim B.
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