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Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
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jimb

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Subject : Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 7/12/2010 12:16 PM
Post #5227

Because of a series of personal happenings, I dropped out of most trading forums, including this one. The reduced trading time available has been mainly used for actual trading. So what? A VT Forum email asking how trading was going with VT received yesterday pointed out that at least a short post might be appropriate (especially if it provided info useful to other traders).

The trading method fairly well detailed in threads listed below is still working very well.
http://www.visualtrader.com/visualtrader/forum/thread-view.asp?threadid=357
http://www.visualtrader.com/visualtrader/forum/thread-view.asp?threadid=392
As mentioned in those postings, stocks with high volatility induced by news such as earnings announcements, are traded with the belief that it is easier to make really big profits using stocks that have really (relatively) big price moves (from which to extract (big) profits).

Attached is a VT map containing earnings stocks for this week so that individual forum members may evaluate if the price action is such that they want to try trading these types of news driven price moves. If so, go to the referenced thread and read the related posts. If not, at least there was not much time invested in reaching that decision. These stocks are very suitable for day trading, and also trading in longer timeframes, partly because of increased momentum being added to price movement for some residual time. Some candidates may have a change in trend based on the news, making them nice early reversal plays. Do they all make a ton of money? Of course not, like all things in trading certainty is always missing. But enough do normally provide excellent trades to make trading them worthwhile.

The stocks listed in plates/discs identified as SUB have a price less than $10, but at least $2, OR daily average volume less than 400k, but at least 60k. These SUB stocks are best traded by more experienced traders. There are 17 SUB stocks and 37 stocks exceeding the SUB criteria in the attached map.

Hope the attached map proves of use to at least some forum members.

Regards,

Jim B.


[Edited by jimb on 7/12/2010 12:20 PM]

Attached file : 100712 EarningsMapForWeek_vtp.zip (28KB - 572 downloads)

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THELGET

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 7/12/2010 4:52 PM
Post #5229 - In reply to #5227

Jim B.:

Thanks for this post, and, for others interested in these techniques, please realize that earnings season is just getting rolling with much more to come as the season progresses.

Tom Helget

[Edited by THELGET on 7/12/2010 4:53 PM]

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jimb

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 7/18/2010 6:52 PM
Post #5232 - In reply to #5227

For those interested in this thread, attached is a partial earnings stocks map for next week. It contains 239 stocks that meet the more stringent criteria stated when opening this thread. There are over 150 SUB stocks that are not included because of thinking that the 239 better quality stocks will provide enough excellent trades.

I often have the SUB stks in a watchlist in another tool so that they can be checked during pre market and shortly after market open, and added to the map if they deserve it based on price action and volume.

Hope those testing and/or trading these stocks, enjoy the activity.

Regards,

Jim B.

EDIT: An earnings map for SUB stks was added since there might be interest in these stks. However, this map only has the full week of stks on one plate instead of being identified by when they report on separate plates - if this additional temporal info is desired, it can be found at briefings.com (or YAHOO). The related txt file is also attached so that importing the list into other tools is made easier.


[Edited by jimb on 7/18/2010 8:46 PM]

Attached file : 100712 EarningsMapForWeek_vtp.zip (28KB - 495 downloads)
Attached file : 100719 SUB earnings stks for week symbols 1-153 txt.txt (4KB - 605 downloads)
Attached file : 100719 SUB Earnings Map For Week.vtp (360KB - 476 downloads)

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/10/2010 1:07 PM
Post #5423 - In reply to #5227

JimB,

I'm very interested in the methodology you have developed.

A funny thing happened today. I just downloaded your recent .vtp file -- for the sub earnings map from last July 19. And, when the current image appeared on my computer, I could hardly believe it. All of the cylinders were lined up so perfectly, it seemed as if you must have planned it that way.



I assume that there is no way you would or could have done so. But, the pattern seems unmistakable. It must be yet another example of being "fooled by randomness."

Jeff

[Edited by jmishlove on 10/10/2010 2:04 PM]

Attached file : Neat.bmp (494KB - 2313 downloads)

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Barry Cohen

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/11/2010 9:49 AM
Post #5426 - In reply to #5423

VT sorts the cylinders within the plate according to the transform used. :)
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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/11/2010 10:02 AM
Post #5427 - In reply to #5426

Makes sense ... otherwise the bars behind would be hidden.
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Barry Cohen

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/11/2010 10:37 AM
Post #5428 - In reply to #5427

Yep. Though some don't like that it does that sorting, so it wasn't that long ago that we added an option to remove the column sorting.
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jimb

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/19/2010 1:53 PM
Post #5433 - In reply to #5423

Jeff,

It is a thing of beauty, isn’t it? (How the cylinders are sorted in VT)

Attached is a new earnings map for this week that includes both the daily stocks that met a prescribed criteria of price at $10/share, or greater, and volume at 400k shares/day, or greater


SUB stocks for the week are again just included on one plate. SUB stocks criteria are provided in the first post in this tread.

Hope that you (and others) find it hard not to make money with these plays. I personally play them in multiple timeframes. But day trades are my favorite, especially when the market is acting like it is bipolar.

For day trades, having pre-market data allows a trader to make more money, quicker. An extract of this morning’s pre-market chat follows. As you likely see, it is pretty simple stuff. But making money with simple stuff is a robust way to wealth – that is, it allows making good money in most any market condition.

>>> Chat extract in CDT time zone – market opens at 8:30AM>>>>>.
[7:02:19 AM] James E. Barrett: Tuesday, Oct 19, 2010, good morning
Economic Reports
7:45am USD US - ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
8:30am USD US - Housing Starts
8:55am USD US - Redbook
[7:08:08 AM] James E. Barrett: Note: Multiple FOMC speaking sessions:
9:00am FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
10:00am FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
4:00pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
7:00pm FOMC Member Duke Speaks
[7:08:29 AM] James E. Barrett: Wonder if they had to attend obedience training
[7:24:52 AM] T1 : Good morning, Jim. NASDAQ Pre-market indicator is down 1.29%.
[7:27:25 AM] James E. Barrett: Most gap stks are also down
[7:39:05 AM] James E. Barrett: Gap stks - AAPL BKCC CBST CLF COF CSTR IBM INFN LNCR MEE MSFT PH UNH VMW VOD WERN WFT
Most gap stks have excellent pre mkt patterns
Foreign Markets
Asia - mixed
Europe - up, with financial up again today. Weak are tech and oil
Domestic Markets - down with range of -0.31 to -0.66. NASDAQ is up some from previous lows - but it is still lowest market.
Be back for open - good luck.
[7:41:45 AM] James E. Barrett: Forgot to mention that dollar was spiking earlier - Attributed to China raised some interest rate.
[7:41:46 AM] T1: See you later
[7:42:17 AM] T2: morning fellas
>>>>>>>>end chat extract>>>>>>>

Using the Nirvana Net Percent Change (Session) Transform about two minutes after market open also yields some usually superior trade candidates. If trading is so good that you do not have time to check for these additional candidates, you can use replay to identify them later when things slow down. Why do this - because like the gap stocks, they are often big movers from which big profits can be extracted, including later that same day. If you do not use the 2 minute timeframe, just use your lowest timeframe instead. For day trading, I personally use 2, 5 15, 30, and 60 minute, plus daily timeframes. Some folks prefer 1 minute timeframes, and I use these on my broker charts, but selection between the two is a moot point to me.

I also like to use a Net Percent Change (Bar) Transform so that gap bias can be removed when doing a first cut on comparing relative strength for the day, or individual intraday timeframes.

Well enough of that.

Hope you like what you see in the attached map for this week, and add these trades (in your desired timeframes (day, swing, etc.)) to contribute to your trading account growth techniques.

Regards,

Jim B.


[Edited by jimb on 10/19/2010 2:47 PM]

Attached file : 101018 Earnings Map For Week w SUBs.vtp (1216KB - 453 downloads)

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/23/2010 12:44 PM
Post #5436 - In reply to #5227

Jim,

The information you are providing is excellent and much appreciated by me -- including your original posts going back to May 2007. I have printed them out and am studying them carefully. I am particularly impressed that you have been following, basically, the same methodology for well over three years with good success. So, it is my hope that I can study and learn as much as I can from what you have achieved.

My biggest problem with pre-market data is that I live in the Pacific timezone. I find that I am not really fully awake at 6:30 am here, when the regular market opens. But, I think it is probably worth just getting to bed a little sooner, and taking an afternoon nap as well, so that I can get up by 5 am and be alert.

Back in 2007 -- when CNBC was holding its "$1 million Portfolio Challenge Contest" -- I wrote a "Handbook" for contestants. And, as a result, was invited to be a guest on television. The method I recommended then was to combine earnings reports along with stocks that had high short-squeeze potential. It worked so well, I was invited back five times on CNBC. You can find good short-squeeze candidates at http://www.shortsqueeze.com

For those who may be interested, I am attaching a copy of the 2007 Handbook. At the time of the contest, it sold for $35. It represented my best take, back then, of how to find the best candidates for a single-day, upward surge. Visual Trader is one of the tools mentioned in the Handbook. However, I didn't expect most contestants would make such an investment just for the sake of the stock-picking contest. (Incidentally, the winner of the $1 million prize that year was a waitress from Ohio, with no stock-picking experience, whose husband had purchased my Handbook for her to use.)

I think that, for many years, I didn't really want to fully engage with Visual Trader because my focus was primarily on non-discretionary, mechanical trading systems -- particularly those involving neural networks. My old website -- http://www.forecastingsystems.com -- contains many blogs that I wrote (before I even knew the term "blog") about these systems. Some early, major successes got me hooked on this approach. But, over time, even "adaptable" systems seemed unable to adapt.

Now, I have come around to the view that the most effective, neural network system of all is the human brain -- and that human intuition can be harnessed to a powerful tool like Visual Trader quite effectively. So, I am especially eager to learn from those on this forum who have a head start on me in this style of trading.

Jim, I assume that the "chat" that you cite from, above, is the same one that you referred to in --

http://www.visualtrader.com/forum/thread-view.asp?threadid=671

At that time, you solicited information from other forum members who were engaged in similar chat groups. I wonder how that is working out. Are there now networks of Nirvana users engaged in small chat groups?

Jeff


[Edited by jmishlove on 10/23/2010 1:19 PM]

Attached file : Handbook C.pdf (1498KB - 1752 downloads)

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/23/2010 1:14 PM
Post #5437 - In reply to #5227

Recently, I've been reading a fascinating book, by Jon D. Markman, called The New Day Trader Advantage.

In it, he references a website -- http://www.markethistory.com -- where it is possible to see the patterns of each stock, averaged over many years, in the days leading up to and following their earnings announcements. Markman recommends using this website to identify those stocks that, historically, show the most predictable volatility patterns around earnings announcements. The website has many other features. Some are free. Others are for premium subscribers at different levels.

I think this would, also, combine very nicely with Visual Trader.

Jeff

[Edited by jmishlove on 10/23/2010 1:25 PM]

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/24/2010 2:56 PM
Post #5438 - In reply to #5227

I see that OmniScan can filter stocks according to either their short interest ratio or the number of short interest shares. I believe this to be very valuable information, and it is more efficient to be able to conduct such a scan within OmniScan -- rather than jumping back and forth to a website such as http://www.shortsqueeze.com

Jeff
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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/24/2010 6:22 PM
Post #5439 - In reply to #5227

I've been endeavoring to put together an Earnings Map for the coming week. But, what a job! I believe http://www.briefing.com is listing over 700 U.S. stocks that are reporting earning this week. I think that's more than a single VT profile can contain.

If other members of the forum are interested in pursuing the strategy outlined by JimB, it might be useful combine efforts to create the Earnings Map each week. I've been at it for a couple of hours now, and I've only completed Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning (before market open) -- which I am attaching.

I'm probably not doing this in the most efficient way. I certainly haven't been able to sort out those stocks that JimB has labelled as SUB. But, it's a start.

Jeff

[Edited by jmishlove on 10/24/2010 8:30 PM]

Attached file : 101025 Earnings Map Mon Tu Wed.vtp (700KB - 392 downloads)

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/24/2010 6:33 PM
Post #5440 - In reply to #5439

I wonder if there is some way to take the weekly list of stocks that are reporting earnings (i.e., from http://www.briefing.com) and import it directly into OmniScan for further sorting.

From OmniScan, I believe, one can import directly into VT.

Jeff
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jimb

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/27/2010 9:53 PM
Post #5441 - In reply to #5440

Jeff,

Attached is the map for this week. No SUB stocks are included since there are more than enough earnings stocks (384) that met the higher criteria.

I have not been doing frequent visits to the forums for some time now - sorry for the delay in getting back to you.

Regards,

Jim B.
Attached file : 101025 Earnings Map For Week.vtp (636KB - 412 downloads)

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jimb

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/27/2010 10:01 PM
Post #5442 - In reply to #5440

Jeff,

Attached are the percent change lists for today (1d) for yesterday's AMC and today's BMO earnings stocks that provide a rough idea of how well these stocks traded today.

Perhaps like you, I much prefer to take big profits out of big moves, and quick is also better.

Regards,

Jim B.
Attached file : 101027 - 101026 PM AMC % chng 1d.pdf (102KB - 505 downloads)
Attached file : 101027 - 101027 AM BMO % chng 1d.pdf (69KB - 519 downloads)

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jimb

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/27/2010 10:14 PM
Post #5443 - In reply to #5436

Jeff,

Thank you for the handbook, and sharing other ideas.

Regards,

Jim B.
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jimb

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 10/31/2010 8:47 PM
Post #5444 - In reply to #5439

Jeff,

FYI - 297 earnings stocks met Group (more stingent) criteria. One of these, SVR, has been sold, but the sale has attracted lawyers - so it was left in the list/map.

SUB stocks were not included because of there being sufficient higher quality stocks. Plus, the tools normally used to make map generation easier were unavailable this weekend.

Good luck at trading the map.

Regards,

Jim B.

Attached file : 101101 Earnings Map For Week.vtp (548KB - 382 downloads)

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/1/2010 8:08 AM
Post #5445 - In reply to #5227

Thanks, Jim, this is much appreciated. I'll be studying the map carefully this week.

Jeff
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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/1/2010 12:36 PM
Post #5446 - In reply to #5445

Jim,

I would be interested in knowing which stocks from the Earnings Map you traded today.

Jeff
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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/1/2010 3:48 PM
Post #5447 - In reply to #5446

Jeff,

Information provided per your request.

Attached is a chat extract from this morning’s trading for about an hour and a half after market open.

Several things to point out are that as you will see, I personally made some errors in assessing which stocks were likely to provide big moves after market open, reading charts (like thinking price action had entered a window, when it had not; being early on the last NFLX turn back down for a final trade for this morning, and etc.), but we constantly update things, and errors do not hurt individual trades very much. We have coined an expression that “we trade what we see”. We normally trade a map that contains the earnings stocks, other stocks that have displayed recent tradable volatility, and stocks that are gapping during the pre-market hours with higher than usual volume.

I personally mostly use price action in the form of candles, and volume to perform my trades. I am in the process of learning indicators, but it is a work in progress. I always have some indicators on my charts to mainly aid in learning them as time permits.

For a trader new to these types of trades, it might be beneficial to focus on only a few stocks at a time, and trade in small share size (even if commissions eat up profits) until comfortable with this quick pace action. It might be of benefit to reduce the earning map to just today’s stocks and do a replay for practice. One nice trade I missed today was AEIS, and there are usually better plays found after the fact on each trading day. I have sometimes joked that “we can not catch all of the fish in the sea”. Some traders have started performing these trades by applying what they already preferred, like only entering plays on the first pull back, and etc.

OK, it would now be appreciated if you shared what you did this morning in the way of trades, approaches, or anything else you might want to add/share. Also please share later day trading information. As you know, these stocks often also provide excellent trades later in the day

Regards,

Jim B.

Attached file : 101101 Chat Extract For Today.wps (13KB - 423 downloads)

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/1/2010 6:14 PM
Post #5448 - In reply to #5227

Hi Jim,

Thanks for this information. I'll have to convert the MS Works file to a .doc file before I can read it, however. I will get to that later.

I did spend some time today, both in the pre-market and early morning, reviewing the Earnings Map you provided -- with particular focus on the stocks that reported earnings before the open today. I know that some of those stocks showed real movement. But, as I looked at the charts, I found myself very puzzled as to where I might make trading decisions. I noticed quite a few reversals and fake movements -- and had difficulty gaining any insight from the pre-market trading.

At the same time, I was also endeavoring to paper-trade the methodology I have developed for the emini.

I have found that, even on difficult trading days, the real difference between success and failure for myself are preventable, human errors that occur in the trading process. In order to reduce, and hopefully eliminate, these errors, I have developed a protocol for myself that when I make such an error in actual trading, I have to immediately revert to paper-trading. And, I won't return to playing with cash until I complete three days of error-free paper-trading.

It's a good thing, too. Because I found myself repeating old mistakes. Some of my errors have been really stupid, like buying when I intend to sell and vice-versa. I know better than to do this. But, I suspect part of the problem is that I am still getting adjusted to functioning at an optimal level early in the morning. I'm changing my sleeping patterns so I can be at my computer by about 6:00 am. So, I think this requires some time for my biological clock to adjust.

But, it did seem to me that I cannot really simultaneously trade the emini and also keep track of the Earnings Map. I think I missed at least one good emini trading opportunity, while I was puzzling over the Earnings Map.

Here's the most significant discovery I believe I made this morning: The most popular emini, ES, is one that has been a major focus of mine for about a decade. As you have already pointed out to me privately, it can sometimes be very difficult to trade. So, I spent some time today comparing the charts of the four major stock index eminis: ES, YM, NQ and TF. Of these, I believe I have discovered that TF (based on the Russell 2000) is actually the most tradeable. Higher beta. Trends smoothly. It also, in my opinion, has the most favorable contract specifications -- far and away (i.e., $100 per point).

Of course, it is not possible to load the Russell 2000 stocks into VT (as far as I know). In any case, it is probably not desirable. But, the S&P600 small cap stocks provide a good substitute. I have created my own, simple transform: close - open. It allows me to see, in one glance, how these 600 stocks are behaving -- bar by bar. And, it often allows me to anticipate the strength and direction of the emini movement.

I find this very helpful, although my main trading methodology is simply hand-drawn trendlines and lines of support and resistance.

I'm looking forward to actually trading the TF contract, once I complete my self-imposed requirement of three days of error-free paper trading. And, I also hope to continue to learn from the Earnings Map and the approach you have carefully crafted over many years.

Jeff

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/1/2010 6:35 PM
Post #5449 - In reply to #5227

Jim,

In response to your question regarding trading later in the day, I have nothing to offer right now.

Today, I found that after sitting at my computer concentrating on the market from about 6:15 am until almost noon, I was pretty much burnt-out. Day-trading is new to me and I haven't adjusted to it yet, biologically. I find it to be a very intense, and somewhat draining, activity -- in terms of the mental concentration required.

I imagine that, probably, the best approach for me will be to trade during the first two hours or so -- until about 9 am (Pacific Time) -- and then take a serious break: exercise, have breakfast, shower, handle emails, answer phone calls, pay some bills, etc. Then, I'll probably be ready to focus on the final hour of trading from noon until 1:15 pm.

Jeff
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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/1/2010 10:00 PM
Post #5450 - In reply to #5448

Jeff,

Which market internals do you use?

For the high volatility market open trades, the stocks are often on their own page, and there is no need to check what the market is dong (unless its moves are giants that will swamp everything).

But as you likely know, later in the day, and earlier for stocks not on their own page, it is prudent to align with what the internals say the market is going to do. And of course, internals also help in trading the index futures.

Another thing that helped me years ago was to compare the four index futures in two timeframes. (See http://www.visualtrader.com/forum/thread-view.asp?threadid=356&posts=22) What was looked for was the usual congruence, with special attention to which index lead moves on a particular day. This was later changed over to just using the ultra longs and shorts (ETFs). An old trading buddy and I use to scalp the ETFs when nothing else was happening. Prior to that, back when the index futures were used, they were just to keep track of where the markets were going as an aid to trading stocks.

I am sure that there are many more talented index futures (or the related ETFs) traders that have techniques much better than what I use to use. Perhaps you are one of them. If so, please take no offense.

See the attached (today’s) chat extract in MS word format.

Regards,

Jim B..

Attached file : 101101 Chat ExtractFor Today (in word format).doc (30KB - 573 downloads)

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jmishlove

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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/2/2010 11:10 AM
Post #5451 - In reply to #5450

Jim,

I have been endeavoring to use VT as a way to scan quickly the advance-decline balance of stocks in different timeframes. I guess that would qualify as a market internal.

Also, I am starting to track the NYSE TICKS. And, I would like to figure out how to program VT or OT to display the daily cumulative ticks.

Please, do not be concerned about offending me with your advice or opinions. From my perspective, you are much more experienced day-trader than myself. I am engaging in this new venture on my own right now -- without any trading partners or mentors. I am reading as much as I can, and learning as much as I can from paper-trading, etc. But, I very much value any information or suggestions that you care to offer.

Can you explain what you mean by "ultra longs and shorts"?

I look forward to reviewing the chat extracts that you have posted.

Thanks,
Jeff
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Subject : RE: Using News To Form A Superior Watchlist
Posted : 11/2/2010 2:39 PM
Post #5452 - In reply to #5451

Jeff:

The "Ultras" are long and short ETF's with double the leverage of their underlying insturment. For example, DDM is the Ultra Dow30 Proshares and it is twice as volitile as its underlying Dow 30 stocks:





If that is not enough speed for you try the triple leveraged instruments:





Tom Helget

[Edited by THELGET on 11/2/2010 2:41 PM]

Attached file : ULTRAS.PNG (5KB - 1718 downloads)
Attached file : 3X ULTRAS.PNG (4KB - 1713 downloads)

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