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Visual ETF Trader question
Last Activity 8/5/2019 5:24 PM
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Stan

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Subject : Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/22/2015 11:42 AM
Post #9393

For Visual ETF trader, why does the signals change. Do I close the trade if the signals disappear the next day?
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THELGET

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/22/2015 6:55 PM
Post #9394 - In reply to #9393

Stan:

Trading signals go through a "life" that includes Enter Long or Enter Short (the triangles with the hole in them) also known as Forming Signals to New Long and New Short (the fully colored-in triangle) to In-trade signals (the up or down arrow). Occassionaly a signal will also be re-inforced (the hollow triangle).

The trade terminates with an Exit Signal which is a small green square.

Now you would think you would be able to find a quick description of this in VT 11, but I had to go to the Filter tool in OT2015 to get a visual for you:




Note that it is not strictly in "life" order, but I hope it aids your understanding.

Tom Helget

[Edited by THELGET on 8/22/2015 6:57 PM]

Attached file : VT Signals.PNG (10KB - 493 downloads)

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Stan

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 2:40 AM
Post #9395 - In reply to #9393

Thanks for the explanation. I understand what you mean by the life of a signal. What if that brand new spanking signals just disappeared the next day. It's like a missing person report. There was a life then the next day it's gone without going through the cycle.
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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 4:43 AM
Post #9396 - In reply to #9395

Their are a variety of possible reasons for this. Many/most of those reasons are "flagged" in the Strategy Builder view by red borders around some of the boxes, showing "optimization" effects of various types. There are other more subtle possible reasons as well, related to the number of bars loaded, or corrections to historical data (mainly for intraday). But, generally speaking, the kind of behavior you mention has long been considered marginal/unacceptable by the user-community, and Nirvana has provided ways around it.

It's impossible to pinpoint why it is happening in your case, without very complete descriptions of what strategy and settings you are using. Hopefully these comments will help you investigate further.

I would start by looking for red boxes in the Strategy block-diagram.
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Stan

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 9:11 AM
Post #9397 - In reply to #9393

Thanks for the reply. I'm not really a power user. I'm using the default settings for ETF trader. I'll take a look tonight at strategy builder though I'm not sure what I'm doing there.
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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 11:08 AM
Post #9398 - In reply to #9397

Jest look very th' red boxes ;-)
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THELGET

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 12:13 PM
Post #9399 - In reply to #9398

Guys:

Jim is indeed correct about the red box optimization issue leading to disappearing signals.

But the strategy provided in the Visual ETF module is purely mechanical.

And that is why I didn't even address the optimization problem in my original post.

Tom Helget
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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 12:17 PM
Post #9400 - In reply to #9399

Sorry - my tendency to generalize sometimes doesn't help - or apply. I haven't tested ETF trader yet - too busy with MTV.

Another cause can be the number of bars loaded. Try doubling them and see if that helps. Another can be the use of NTB but my guess is that doesn't apply here. Another can be realtime data corrections.

Maybe that will help.

But if it doesn't, no one will be able to diagnose it unless all the details are specified re the setup and re the symbols and what happened. Then Barry can hopefully duplicate it and resolve it.
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THELGET

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 12:30 PM
Post #9401 - In reply to #9400

Jim:

Yes, the data problem seems the most likely cause of the problem to me for a recent signal. The Visual ETF Strategy is not NTB and is meant for EOD trading.

Of course a signal long ago disapperaring in an AutoSim is an entirely different matter.

And if this is the case I would suggest that Stan take a screen shot of the two days, post it here and see if Barry can address it.

Tom Helget

[Edited by THELGET on 8/23/2015 12:32 PM]

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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 12:42 PM
Post #9402 - In reply to #9401

Yup ... I would fully EXPECT symbols to act oddly in the early (left hand side) of autosim, since 99% of the strategies don't have adequate warmup encoded to prevent it. But at the HRE, and imho for at least 30-60 bars before that, if adequate bars are loaded for whatever algorithms are in use, then the signals SHOULD be stable.
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THELGET

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 1:04 PM
Post #9403 - In reply to #9402

Jim:

While it is indeed true that warmup is a factor it is a bit unknown as to exactly how much is needed in the "black box" ETF-1 Strategy:




And, unusually, the number of bars loaded in the canned Visual ETF Profile is very generous at 2000 EOD bars:



Of course, this could indicate that a long warm-up is required. But, who knows? It might just be that this number was provided so that the user could employ the new AutoSim to get into the Way-Back Machine for testing.

Tom Helget

[Edited by THELGET on 8/23/2015 1:09 PM]

Attached file : ETF-1 Strategy.PNG (11KB - 460 downloads)
Attached file : A Generous Number of Bars.PNG (34KB - 478 downloads)

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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/23/2015 1:08 PM
Post #9404 - In reply to #9403

Gotcha ... I'd fully expect that 2000 bars is plenty for the HRE ... but if you go back in time via autosim or other means, near the beginning of that 2000 bars, that's where the signals might be less "accurate"
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Barry Cohen

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/24/2015 11:42 AM
Post #9411 - In reply to #9393

Stan, to begin to understand what you saw, we would at least need to know what signal you saw change. Was it a pending signal? Here is a description of the signals in OT/VT.
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Stan

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 12:45 AM
Post #9414 - In reply to #9393

igm, iyc, iyk, ppa, xlp

i think they all disappeared except igm which showed an exit. of course i traded real money too.
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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 6:10 AM
Post #9415 - In reply to #9414

He wants you to tell him what KIND of signal it was, using the list that he and Tom provided. Was it green or red? Was it triangle or arrow? Was it hollow or filled? If it was hollow, it was a "pending" signal, per his comments - those can and do disappear midday as the bar changes during the day.

Also - Did you possibly miss a day or two between checks? It could have closed then disappeared. What specific bar-dates did it occurred on?

This is hard to diagnose without detailed info. The best thing is a before and after snapshot, which also shows the date in the snapshot.

[Edited by Jim Dean on 8/25/2015 6:13 AM]

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Stan

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 10:16 AM
Post #9416 - In reply to #9393

I entered on 8/20/15. Using the simulator, it was a hollow triangle? Two things though. Can we enter on all triangles. Or just solid triangles. I also entered midday. I assume because it is an end of day program, I should have entered at the open on the following day?

can someone look at igm and explain the signals and how I was to proceed. I got in on 8.20.15 then exited on 8.21. Got a signal 8.24 (hollow triangle?) then today a solid triangle but the day is not over yet.
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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 10:23 AM
Post #9417 - In reply to #9416

Hollow Triangles are PENDING signals ... they can and will appear/disappear during the course of the day. You may choose to take a trade based on them, but keep in mind that the final Closing price might not justify it.

Mechanical strategies are based on SOLID triangles, which appear AFTER the day is complete.

This is explained in lots of places in the various forums, and in tutorial videos, and even in written Help. So, you might try using the "Search" feature for the word "Pending", in this forum and in the OT Forum and the OT Pro forum if you own those tools.
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Barry Cohen

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 10:44 AM
Post #9418 - In reply to #9416

The signal with a white circle center is a pending signal. Pending signals indicate that OT has found a new long opportunity that will begin at the open of the next bar if the entry conditions are still present when the bar has fully formed.

So for example...

1. Triangle with circle appears on the evening of the 8th. This signal indicates the trade will begin at the open of the next day's bar.
(Since it is evening, the market is closed, but the signal will remain pending until the next bar begins.) If you were to trade it you would place a market on open order so that it fills at the next day's market open.
2. Solid triangle will appear on the morning of the 9th indicating the day/bar of entry. If a market on open order was not placed previously you could decide to still get in if you want, but the intention is to enter right at the open of the bar. The longer you wait to get in the later you are entering a trade that has already occurred.

Completely hollow triangle signals are reinforced signals. They are entry opportunities, but I would probably ignore them for now until you are more familiar with all of it.

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Stan

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 10:57 AM
Post #9420 - In reply to #9393

>>The signal with a white circle center is a pending signal. Pending signals indicate that OT has found a new long opportunity that will begin at the open of the next bar if the entry conditions are still present when the bar has fully formed

what do you mean by this? Can I place an market on open order that night? Or do I have to evaluate that signal the next day? If I have to do more evaluation, do I have to wait another full day at the close to decide when to get in?
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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 11:04 AM
Post #9421 - In reply to #9420

Barry thanks for clarifying the "circle" vs "hollow" distinction ...

Stan, if you see a PENDING signal (with circle in it) AT NIGHT, after the market has closed, then yes you can assume safely that it will BECOME a solid triangle the next morning (unless there is a rare data correction).

OT/VT does not automatically change it to solid until the new day/bar initiates.

[Edited by Jim Dean on 8/25/2015 11:05 AM]

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Stan

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 11:09 AM
Post #9422 - In reply to #9393

on ixj, why do i see an arrow (saying it's currently in the trade) but when I click today date I get the following picture saying I exited.
Attached file : v2.jpg (66KB - 241 downloads)

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Stan

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 11:16 AM
Post #9424 - In reply to #9393

Thanks Jim for the explanation.
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Jim Dean

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 11:17 AM
Post #9425 - In reply to #9422

please show a snapahot of everything you are discussing (ie the arrow you see).
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Barry Cohen

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 11:19 AM
Post #9426 - In reply to #9422

Since the exits in that strategy are also market on open, the date shown in the picture is the day you would've gotten out of the trade (at market open of 8-25). It might help you to see the delays on the voteline. You can enable entry/exit delays under Edit/Chart Options/Trades tab. Try turning those 2 options on & off while the IXJ chart is open so you can see the effect on the voteline.
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Stan

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Subject : RE: Visual ETF Trader question
Posted : 8/25/2015 11:19 AM
Post #9427 - In reply to #9393

How do you add a picture along with text rather than submitting an attachment to view later. Sorry if this is off topic.
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